Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence

Olfa Manai Daboussi; Amira Majoul

doi:doi:10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

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Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence

Olfa Manai Daboussi, Amira Majoul

Published in Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 3, Issue 6-1)

Received: 14 December 2014 Accepted: 16 December 2014 Published: 11 February 2015

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Abstract

This article analyzes the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa. The related empirical literature dedicated to the transmissions of financial and real shocks on business cycles in emerging African countries does not lead to firm conclusion. We propose a different empirical approach allowing unlike previous studies to analyze how the real and financial shocks are transmitted from the United States to the region of Africa. Based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model this paper attempts to study the effect of shocks from the United States on the Middle East and North Africa countries, considering the crucial role of trade integration in the integration process in the region of Africa. The model has the advantage of conducting empirical investigations of a large number of countries. The GVAR is estimated for 32 countries over the period 1980-2013. From the functions of impulsive responses generated by this model, our results show the presence of a significant transfer of real and financial shocks of the United States to emerging countries of Africa. This result confirms the idea that a recession affecting the United States tends to affect emerging economies of Africa and even up to cause a recession in the latter.

Published in	Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 3, Issue 6-1) This article belongs to the Special Issue Issues and Challenges of the Financial and Economic Crisis Throughout the World
DOI	10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
Page(s)	39-47
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Business Cycle Synchronization, International Mechanism of Transmission, Subprime Crisis, GVAR

References

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[2]	Altug, S. and M. Bildirici (2010) “Business Cycles Around the Globe: A Regime-Switching Approach” TÜSİAD-KOÇ University Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 100. Baxter, M. and M. Kouparitsas (2004) “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis” NBER Working Paper number 10725.
[3]	Binder, M and M Gross (2013) “Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive Models” European Central Bank Working Paper Series S, No 1569.
[4]	Calderón, C., Chong, A. and E. Stein ( 2002) “ Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?” Central Bank of Chile Working Paper, No.195.
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[6]	Chudik, A. and M. Fratzscher (2011) “Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-2009 Fnancial Crisis in a GVAR Model” European Economic Review, 55, pp 325–339.
[7]	Clark, T.E. and E.V. Wincoop (2001) “Borders and Business Cycles” Journal of International Economics, 55, pp 59-85.
[8]	Crucini, M. J., Kose, M. A. and C. Otrok (2008) “What are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?” NBER Working Papers number 14380.
[9]	Dees, S., Di Mauro, F., Pesaran, M., and L. Smith (2007) “Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A global VAR analysis.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 22 (1), pp 1–38.
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[11]	Heathcote, J. and F. Perri, (2004) “Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization” Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 1191, pp 207-243.
[12]	Helbling, T. and T. Bayoumi (2003) “Are They All in the Same Boat? The 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages” IMF Working Paper 03/46.
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[18]	International Monetary Fund (2007) “Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy” World Economic Outlook
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Olfa Manai Daboussi, Amira Majoul. (2015). Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence. Journal of World Economic Research, 3(6-1), 39-47. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

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ACS Style

Olfa Manai Daboussi; Amira Majoul. Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence. J. World Econ. Res. 2015, 3(6-1), 39-47. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

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AMA Style

Olfa Manai Daboussi, Amira Majoul. Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence. J World Econ Res. 2015;3(6-1):39-47. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

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@article{10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16,
  author = {Olfa Manai Daboussi and Amira Majoul},
  title = {Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence},
  journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
  volume = {3},
  number = {6-1},
  pages = {39-47},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.s.2014030601.16},
  abstract = {This article analyzes the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa. The related empirical literature dedicated to the transmissions of financial and real shocks on business cycles in emerging African countries does not lead to firm conclusion. We propose a different empirical approach allowing unlike previous studies to analyze how the real and financial shocks are transmitted from the United States to the region of Africa. Based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model this paper attempts to study the effect of shocks from the United States on the Middle East and North Africa countries, considering the crucial role of trade integration in the integration process in the region of Africa. The model has the advantage of conducting empirical investigations of a large number of countries. The GVAR is estimated for 32 countries over the period 1980-2013. From the functions of impulsive responses generated by this model, our results show the presence of a significant transfer of real and financial shocks of the United States to emerging countries of Africa. This result confirms the idea that a recession affecting the United States tends to affect emerging economies of Africa and even up to cause a recession in the latter.},
 year = {2015}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence
AU  - Olfa Manai Daboussi
AU  - Amira Majoul
Y1  - 2015/02/11
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
DO  - 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
T2  - Journal of World Economic Research
JF  - Journal of World Economic Research
JO  - Journal of World Economic Research
SP  - 39
EP  - 47
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7748
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
AB  - This article analyzes the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa. The related empirical literature dedicated to the transmissions of financial and real shocks on business cycles in emerging African countries does not lead to firm conclusion. We propose a different empirical approach allowing unlike previous studies to analyze how the real and financial shocks are transmitted from the United States to the region of Africa. Based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model this paper attempts to study the effect of shocks from the United States on the Middle East and North Africa countries, considering the crucial role of trade integration in the integration process in the region of Africa. The model has the advantage of conducting empirical investigations of a large number of countries. The GVAR is estimated for 32 countries over the period 1980-2013. From the functions of impulsive responses generated by this model, our results show the presence of a significant transfer of real and financial shocks of the United States to emerging countries of Africa. This result confirms the idea that a recession affecting the United States tends to affect emerging economies of Africa and even up to cause a recession in the latter.
VL  - 3
IS  - 6-1
ER  -

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Author Information

Olfa Manai Daboussi

MASE- ESSAI and MACMA- TUNIS, Higher Institute of Management of Tunis, University of Tunis, Tunisia
Amira Majoul

Applied Quantitative Analysis Unit (UAQUAP) -Tunisia ISG and GATE (UMR 5824 CNRS), Higher Institute of Management of Tunis, University of Tunis, Tunisia

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APA Style

Olfa Manai Daboussi, Amira Majoul. (2015). Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence. Journal of World Economic Research, 3(6-1), 39-47. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

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ACS Style

Olfa Manai Daboussi; Amira Majoul. Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence. J. World Econ. Res. 2015, 3(6-1), 39-47. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

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AMA Style

Olfa Manai Daboussi, Amira Majoul. Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence. J World Econ Res. 2015;3(6-1):39-47. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16,
  author = {Olfa Manai Daboussi and Amira Majoul},
  title = {Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence},
  journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
  volume = {3},
  number = {6-1},
  pages = {39-47},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.s.2014030601.16},
  abstract = {This article analyzes the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa. The related empirical literature dedicated to the transmissions of financial and real shocks on business cycles in emerging African countries does not lead to firm conclusion. We propose a different empirical approach allowing unlike previous studies to analyze how the real and financial shocks are transmitted from the United States to the region of Africa. Based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model this paper attempts to study the effect of shocks from the United States on the Middle East and North Africa countries, considering the crucial role of trade integration in the integration process in the region of Africa. The model has the advantage of conducting empirical investigations of a large number of countries. The GVAR is estimated for 32 countries over the period 1980-2013. From the functions of impulsive responses generated by this model, our results show the presence of a significant transfer of real and financial shocks of the United States to emerging countries of Africa. This result confirms the idea that a recession affecting the United States tends to affect emerging economies of Africa and even up to cause a recession in the latter.},
 year = {2015}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Business Cycle Synchronization between United States and African Region: Some Empirical Evidence
AU  - Olfa Manai Daboussi
AU  - Amira Majoul
Y1  - 2015/02/11
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
DO  - 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
T2  - Journal of World Economic Research
JF  - Journal of World Economic Research
JO  - Journal of World Economic Research
SP  - 39
EP  - 47
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7748
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.16
AB  - This article analyzes the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa. The related empirical literature dedicated to the transmissions of financial and real shocks on business cycles in emerging African countries does not lead to firm conclusion. We propose a different empirical approach allowing unlike previous studies to analyze how the real and financial shocks are transmitted from the United States to the region of Africa. Based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model this paper attempts to study the effect of shocks from the United States on the Middle East and North Africa countries, considering the crucial role of trade integration in the integration process in the region of Africa. The model has the advantage of conducting empirical investigations of a large number of countries. The GVAR is estimated for 32 countries over the period 1980-2013. From the functions of impulsive responses generated by this model, our results show the presence of a significant transfer of real and financial shocks of the United States to emerging countries of Africa. This result confirms the idea that a recession affecting the United States tends to affect emerging economies of Africa and even up to cause a recession in the latter.
VL  - 3
IS  - 6-1
ER  -

Copy | Download